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    Invelos Forums->General: General Home Theater Discussion Page: 1 2  Previous   Next
High-Def Media (HDM) vs. DVD
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Registered: March 13, 2007
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Found this on another site.  It's VERY interesting.


Quote:
One theory is HDM (Blu-ray + HD-DVD) is not selling well compared to DVD or being adopted as fast. Over the past week I've been crunching the numbers in various posts and though it would be best to put them all in one place.

Here are the keypoints for those of you who don't want have to sort through the extra long post:

DVD sold 1.2 million hardware after 2 years on the market; HDM sold 3-4 million in 18 months
Many current HDM titles sell at a much higher ratio to players than current DVD players (194 million total)
DVD released in 1997 at a price cheaper than Blu-ray launched (inflation adjusted)
Less than 2 years later DVD was still much cheaper than current Blu-ray players
DVD media cost equivalent to Blu-ray media (after inflation)
DVD had 4x the amount of software (2000) at 18 months of Blu-ray (500)
DVD sold 2 million software in its first year, HDM sold approx 3-5 million
Average income was much higher in 1998 than now
VHS had half the households (80+ million) when DVD launched than DVD did (160+ million) when HDM launched. Laserdisc was inconsequential.
In 1998, 18% of the population even knew what DVD was.
DVD now is on the decline and losing millions of hardware/software sales every year since 2005. Studios need something to replace it.

So overall, HDM has had more competition, higher prices, less software, and purchasers with less disposable income and it still has sold faster than DVD.
Blu-ray alone is also ahead of DVD.


The Numbers
Total DVD hardware sales (in millions)
1997 - .305
1998 - .946
1999 - 3.55

Software (in millions)
1997 - 2

DVD Player Price (2006 inflation adjustment)
Launch: $550 ($687)
2 year: $300 ($364)

1998 DVD media Price: $25 ($31)
#of available titles at 18 months: 2000

HDM hardware (in millions)
HD-DVD - .75
Blu-ray - 3 (total PS3 +SA)
Blu-ray - 2 (active players adjusted to match software ratio)

Software
HD-DVD - 2
Blu-ray - 3



Average Family Income:
1998 $71,000 ($86,750)
2004 $60,500 ($69,500)
(We were in a boom in the late 90's and are now in a recession)

In Oct 1998, there were 2,000,000 laserdisc households. There were 80-90 million VHS households. Neither of those numbers are any where near the amount HDM had to compete against DVD with when it launched.

The February 14, 1998, issue of Billboard reported the results of a national survey on DVD. The survey results were released at a conference held January 30-February 1, so the survey was conducted in late 1997 or early 1998. Of the 1,807 U.S. households surveyed, 81% said they are "not very familiar" or "not familiar" with DVD. Only 18% of those interviewed knew something about the format.


Sources
http://www.dvdinformation.com/industryData/index.cfm

DVD sales numbers
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
Inflation Calculator
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6429390.html
"the players launched at a lower $550 average price in 1997."
http://mediacoder.sourceforge.net/wiki/index.php/DVD
"By the spring of 1999 the price of a DVD player had dropped below $300 US"
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C03E1DC1F3BF931A25753C1A96E9582 60&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1
(October 1998) "Until recently DVD's have been available only for sale, at a price of about $25. "
"About 150 movies are available in [DIVX], compared to more than 2,000 for regular DVD"
http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/lusk/casden/research/data_folder/us_faincsize.pdf
Average Family Income 1998
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States
"Overall the mean household income in the United States according to the US Census Bureau 2004 Economic Survey was $60,528"
http://www.dlib.indiana.edu/~brancoli/videostatus.html
VHS numbers
http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117976168.html?categoryid=20&cs=1
DVD sales are dying

Feel free to add equivalent numbers for Blu-ray and HD-DVD.


Interesting indeed.
To err is human...
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DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantDr. Killpatient
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Software: I do not think they know what it means
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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What do you mean?
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DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantDr. Killpatient
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I was referring to the definition that software are programs that tell computers what to do.  But a lesser used definition refers to anything used with hardware but isn't such as tape, records, etc. so I guess it's okay.

But being a programmer, the former is the true definition and everybody else is simply confused.
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Ah...gotcha.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited Registrantgardibolt
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The problem is he's comparing numbers for DVD in 1997 being 9 months, with the numbers for HDM for 18 months (a little longer for HD DVD).  DVD exploded geometically in the first few years.  HDM is showing no signs whatsoever of doing that.
"This movie has warped my fragile little mind."
DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantDr. Killpatient
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I think that the difference lies in the fact that DVDs had a significant advantage over VHS in the terms of audio & video quality that most anyone could tell the difference.  It was a revolutionary advancement.  It's not quite so with HD.  To most, the DVD is good enough and more than enough bang for their buck.
DVD Profiler Unlimited Registrantzexisstryfe
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Registered: May 20, 2007
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These numbers also are counting all PS3 sales as BluRay players. While this is technically true, many users do not use it for that fact and I believe it has been proven that many people who own PS3's aren't even aware of this function. Just because a household has a PS3 does not mean they are interested in BDs at all...
DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantDr. Killpatient
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Wait - my PS3 plays games???
DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantStar ContributorNadja
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Mine can go on the webbynets!
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Quoting gardibolt:
Quote:
The problem is he's comparing numbers for DVD in 1997 being 9 months, with the numbers for HDM for 18 months (a little longer for HD DVD).  DVD exploded geometically in the first few years.  HDM is showing no signs whatsoever of doing that.


I believe, he is trying to compare DVD @18 months to HDM @ 18 months (except the one line up top).  To be quite frank, all things considered, HDM is doing well.  In Japan, it's doing great!  I believe, HDM sales account for over 30% of the DVD market there!
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Quoting Dr. Killpatient:
Quote:
I think that the difference lies in the fact that DVDs had a significant advantage over VHS in the terms of audio & video quality that most anyone could tell the difference.  It was a revolutionary advancement.  It's not quite so with HD.  To most, the DVD is good enough and more than enough bang for their buck.


At the time, the reports from a lot of people were that they could barely tell the difference.  At that time, VHS was good enough.  After all, the leap between the video and audio quality of VHS to DVD is not a great as DVD to HD w/ lossless sound (way more pixels this time).

Personally, I think there will ALWAYS be those people that say the difference is not that great everytime we move to the next big thing.  Those people are generally forced into upgrading (MUCH later) due to a severe drop in selection.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Quoting zexisstryfe:
Quote:
These numbers also are counting all PS3 sales as BluRay players. While this is technically true, many users do not use it for that fact and I believe it has been proven that many people who own PS3's aren't even aware of this function. Just because a household has a PS3 does not mean they are interested in BDs at all...

Yes, many aren't aware of the Blu-ray functionality in the PS3, but mant ARE aware of that functionality as well.  While, according to a study, most do not buy BDs REGULARLY, a study has shown that most have bought one BD at some point in time.

You are quite correct when you said the just because a household has a PS3 does not mean they are interested in BDs at all.  Of course, that doesn't mean that those households are not interested in BDs. 

One thing's for sure.  Anyone that bought the 40GB PS3 knows of the Blu-ray playing functionality going forward.  Plus, anyone that has taken advantage of the 80GB PS3 with free in-store movies now knows of that functionality as well.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited Registrantzexisstryfe
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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
Yes, many aren't aware of the Blu-ray functionality in the PS3, but mant ARE aware of that functionality as well.  While, according to a study, most do not buy BDs REGULARLY, a study has shown that most have bought one BD at some point in time.

You are quite correct when you said the just because a household has a PS3 does not mean they are interested in BDs at all.  Of course, that doesn't mean that those households are not interested in BDs. 

One thing's for sure.  Anyone that bought the 40GB PS3 knows of the Blu-ray playing functionality going forward.  Plus, anyone that has taken advantage of the 80GB PS3 with free in-store movies now knows of that functionality as well.


I agree. Personally, like Killpatient it seems, I bought my PS3 as a bluray player primarily and a VG system second since I can count the number of good exclusive PS3 games on like 1 finger (okay maybe 2  , oh god that is so depressing). The fact that the 40GB PS3 comes with a Bluray movie helps bring that feature to the forefront, and the new commercials have been helping it as well.

I believe that the fact that HDM doesn't seem to be making much of a dent in DVD sales is because DVDs are so entrenched right now, as illustrated by those numbers. Despite the fact they are selling quite well, they just don't seem to be gaining marketshare like they were predicted to. Perhaps this is due to people "waiting out" the format war, combined with the people that "just don't see a difference" and therefore can't justify the expenditure.

Another aspect is the fact not everyone has a TV in which the true benefit of these medias can be experienced. The vast majority of Americans in particular still have SDTVs, or at best, EDTVs. For them bluray/HDDVD hold no worth. When DVD was released this was not the case. Any TV that played a VHS could play a DVD and barring B&W TVs, could see a great picture difference. With the current push for HDTVs going on, and as the footprint of that technology widens, I would guess that the footprint of HDM would expand as well.
DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantDr. Killpatient
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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
At the time, the reports from a lot of people were that they could barely tell the difference.  At that time, VHS was good enough.

At the time, people were watching DVDs on standard tube TV's. 
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantDvdjon
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Quoting Dr. Killpatient:
Quote:
Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
Quote:
At the time, the reports from a lot of people were that they could barely tell the difference.  At that time, VHS was good enough.

At the time, people were watching DVDs on standard tube TV's. 


Strange in norway there was never a debate on the fact that dvd was way better in picture and sound. Heck I even got a remark, that it was incredible from a 85 year old grandmother in the shop i was working at at the time.

However the debate on dvd vs laserdisc was raging for a couple of years.

As for the bd function of ps3 most are avare of it as sony norway(or europe) sendt out casino royale to all who registerd at sony network. I have done the comparisons on this movie and I totally understand those who say thay do not get the hype about bd as the picture is only marginally better.
The sound is much better IF YOU HAVE A SYSTEM  THAT CAN PLAY IT wich most do not have. My neighbour actually picked out the dvd as the bd in a blind test as the best picture.

One or both formats is going to take over for dvd, but not yet it will proparbly be 2-3 years before we see a big chunk of the dvd sales going for one or both formats.

As for the war on the formats.... anyone here remember the dvd-r and dvd+r format war on recordable dvds? can anyone here state wich format won? the answer is no one the two formats are both selling quite well atm.
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