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HD DVD and Blu-ray
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DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantStar ContributorNewEnglander
Registered: 11/13/2003
Registered: March 13, 2007
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Quoting Unicus69:
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Quoting pplchamp:
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However, the smart consumer out to purchase a BR player should be looking at the PS3 first. The main reason I bought it was the price drop, then because it played BR movies, then for the games that are now starting to appear.

I have two PS3 games, one ordered.

I have 40+ BR movies with a dozen or so ordered. I guess I would be the "smart BR comsumer".


I don't think anybody is arguing the fact that the PS3 is a good Blu-ray player.  I certainly am not.  What we are saying, well what I am saying, is that when the average consumer goes into a store to look at HD players, the sales people aren't sending them to the video game department...they are being sent to the home entertainment/home theatre department.

While I will admit that I haven't been into every store, every store I have been in has the Xbox 360 & PS3 in the video game department while the HD DVD & Blu-ray players are in the home entertainement department.


Probably because most of the sales people are morons
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DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantStar ContributorTheMadMartian
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Quoting pplchamp:
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Probably because most of the sales people are morons


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Invelos Software, Inc. RepresentativeKen Cole
Invelos Software
Registered: March 10, 2007
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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
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To have a dual format player at the $199 price range, HD DVD and Blu-ray players would probably need to be around $100 each.  That would almost put manufacturers back into the same situation it was trying to escape from with DVD...almost no profits.

That's not really true.  The BD-UP5000 will SRP for $999 (which means maybe $799 online this year?) and is being rated as highly as the best of the current Blu-Ray only players, which are very close in SRP, and as highly as the best HD-DVD players, which are somewhat cheaper.  It's already far cheaper than buying a top end player of each type, and that's exactly what you're getting.

See one of the early reviews for the player here.

There's a large overlap in the hardware between the two formats, so there's no reason a dual format player must cost the same as the two players combined.  My old DVD player plays like nine different media types and doesn't cost as much as a player for each of the nine types.
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 Last edited: by Ken Cole
DVD Profiler Unlimited Registranttwojayz
Registered: September 7, 2007
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Well, I guess we can at least all agree that the PS3 is in the game department.
DVD Profiler Unlimited Registrantgraymadder
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Let's assume for a second or so and say that both formats continue and we end up in a dual format market. For arguments sake let's also say that both HD-DVD and Blu-ray movies are selling close to even because in this what if there are also many dual format players to choose from at low selling prices. Let's aslo say that the number of HD movies and players sold are greatly higher. Say all movies  purchased are 40% hi def and the rest standard def. While the sale of hi def players are more like 60% leaving 40% to the standard def players because of low cost hi def players.

Now that the what if has presented here is my topic for discussion:

How many studio exlcusives would remain?
Would studio exclusive  deals matter?
Would Sony release on HD-DVD movies or would it matter?
Would there only be dual format players available?
Would the sale of movies be more profitable than players?
 Last edited: by graymadder
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantMark Harrison
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Since you didn't specify, I'm going to assume that the vast majority of people (95% or higher) have dual-format players in this hypothesis.

Quoting graymadder:
Quote:
How many studio exlcusives would remain?


I think there would be more exclusives.  What would be the point in the studios developing an HD DVD version and a Blu-ray version.  It would keep their development costs down to publish on a single format.

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Would studio exclusive  deals matter?


If Blu-ray can get their replication straightened out and match the production costs of HD DVD, then no.  I can't see that it would matter to the consumers or the studios.

Until Blu-ray can get their costs down to match HD DVD, then of course it matters.  Because if it costs more to make a Blu-ray disc, then why do it?  The studios will want to maximize their profits.  So if a studio is making Blu-ray discs, then they'll make less profit (which wouldn't please them) or they'll pass the difference on to the consumer (which wouldn't please us).

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Would Sony release on HD-DVD movies or would it matter?


Again, it all depends on the costs to make Blu-ray discs.  Even Sony won't want to loose money.  If they never get their costs down to HD DVD levels, I doubt they'd want to want to loose money for no good reason.  And they're not gaining profit by paying royalities to themselves.

If they get the costs worked out, then I can't imaging they'd ever publish on HD DVD.  They would save money since they wouldn't be paying royalities to someone else.

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Would there only be dual format players available?


I think so.  Again, if they can get those costs sorted out on the hardware side, why wouldn't you make it dual-format?  With that much hi-def being sold, most people wouldn't want to purchase a player that couldn't play everything.  So I doubt they'd be made.

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Would the sale of movies be more profitable than players?


I would guess yes.  That's the standard business model today with DVDs, game systems and computers.  You take a loss or a very small profit margin on the hardware and make up the difference in software.  Today anyone can sell you a decent DVD player.  And for the average consumer, average is good enough for them.  There is a high end market, but that is just a small fraction of the overall market.  So their prices have to be competitive.  The software on the other hand is more of a monopoly.  Only one studio can sell you Die Hard or Lord of the Rings or Heroes or whatever.  You buy it at their price or you don't buy it.  No one else can sell it to you (obviously ignoring importing from other regions since the average consumer would never do such a thing).

Today there's very little profit in the low-end DVD player market.  But the profits on the software (DVDs) are HUGE.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Quoting twojayz:
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In reference to the PS3, I find that there needs to be a distinction between what the primary purpose of a product is versus all the different capabilities that product has. The PS3 is in fact a gaming console that utilizes BD technology. I would be foolish to argue that. The problem I have is that when numbers are thrown out that BD players have vastly outsold HD players, because of PS3, it is highly misleading to the average consumer.

I know people absolutely love to categorize people, products, etc, but the PS3 is just as good of a BD player as a gaming console, media center, etc.  It seems you are just arguing labels.  None of this discounts the abilities of any of the features.  That's my point.  It's just labeling for the purpose of saying that it doesn't count as much in the HD world...which would not be reality.

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On stand-alone players there isn't nearly that type of margin. The reason to seperate it is because it is in fact a gaming unit which also serves as a BD player. It is not a BD player that also serves as a gaming console. When someone asks if you have a PS3 you say yes and there is no need to elaborate. If someone asks if you have a BD player and you say yes, they ask what kind. Do you simply say Sony or do you qualify it by saying it's a PS3? Most people will say it's a PS3. If you simply say a Sony, why not elaborate and say PS3? The distinction is there.

The PS3 is a specific name of a product...like saying BDP-S300.  That is why no other need to elaborate.  By saying I have a BD player it is almost like saying I bought a Sony gaming console.

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If you shop online or in a retail outlet the PS3 is included in the gaming section. You won't find it with a/v equipment. You won't find a BD player in the gaming section. The distinction is there and there is a reason for it. I won't argue that it is a great BD player, there is no shifting of focus. The focus for this particular product however should remain with what the primary function of the product is, a gaming console.

The PS3 is located in the gaming section of a store for easy location...not for what it does best or equally.  In stores, location is what sells.  Stores know that product placement helps or hurts sales.  The primary function of the PS3 is whatever YOUR primary use of it is.  I believe some people are just too caught up with labels.  It can help in a lot of cases, but it can also confuse people...like in this case.

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It has nothing to do with " so it won't count as much in the eyes of consumers". It's entirely about being truthful and letting consumers make accurate decisions. To use your same argument, a primary reason to use PS3 sales is to pad the numbers and make it seem as if BD players are doing much better than they actually are. Also, by your own comments, HD DVD players are probably outselling BD players if you were to include the X360 add-on. I have yet to see a report on player sales that includes that number. I'm sure the statistics are out there, I just haven't seen them.

PS3 sales are not to pad numbers.  I believe you are too rigid in this thinking.  The results are in the software sales.  The fact is that some people are buying PS3s as a BD player.  Would you just throw this fact out the window because it is not convenient?  I have a PS3 and 233 BDs and 18 BD games.  Should my stats not count because I don't have a standalone player?  If you go to Blu-ray.com and search for the subject "how many people bought a PS3 as their BD player", you would see that the vast majority on that poll bought a PS3 for their BD player...not as a gaming console.  The truth is that there is NO WAY to tell exactly how many people are buying PS3s solely as a BD player or as a primary function or as a secondary or just as a gaming console.  That is something people just need to come to terms with...period.  STEFC has a PS3 as a BD player only (according to him).  PPLCHAMP has a PS3.  Did you see his Blu-ray collection?

HD DVD add-ons account for about 50% of HD DVD players (around 150,000).  I count them.  Why wouldn't you?  It's doesn't perform as a standalone HD DVD player performs.  The HD DVD add-on REQUIRES the Xbox 360 or a PC.  It doesn't "stand alone".  When coupled with the standard Xbox 360, for around 10 million people you have NO HDMI, NO DTS (it's passed to the receiver to decode), NO LPCM, and NO TrueHD.  That's not a fully functional HD DVD player.  Should it count as one?  Why not...I don't mind.  On the other hand, the PS3 has ALL of those functions as a BD player.

Quote:
In order to have a valid leg to stand on either the HD add-ons must be included in sales figures or the PS3 needs to be disregarded in the BD player sales figures. That is the only way that sales numbers can be reasonably compared. I for one say comparisons should stick with stand alone players and exclude all other devices, PS3 and X360 add-ons. To include the gaming devices inflates sales numbers on both sides. However, at least the sole purpose of the X360 add-on is to watch movies. If the X360 had a built in HD drive then I wouldn't consider it a HD player either, it would be a gaming console, just like the PS3.

I have no problem counting the Xbox 360 add-ons.  They are handicapped HD DVD players, but why not count them?

So you wouldn't count my PS3 purchase as a BD player sale, even though I have 233 BDs?  I thought people have BD players to buy titles...not to just have players.  Since that IS the case, you can not rightfully discount PS3 sales.  PS3 owners are clearly buying BD titles (pplchamp and stefc are just a couple others on in this thread).

The PS3 can not be scientifically be disregarded as a BD player and every PS3 can't be completely counted as guaranteed BD movie sales.  It's hard to accept, but that's the way it is.  The BD title sales reflect this.

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As for title reviews and the quality of experience I will say this; the level of quality is and has always been a highly subjective thing. Every revfiew I have read (industry guides and magazines) put the quality at either identical or slightly in the HD advantage as far as picture quality is concerned. I have yet to see a mention that the soundtracks themselves differ, with the exception of a Dolby vs. DTS track. If you were trying to say that HD discs at times do not use a truly lossless audio track then I would like to think that Dolby and DTS would have a major problem with that. The possible legal ramifications of doing so simply wouldn't be worth the risk. I don't see that is truly the case. I trust the reviews I read as they are all done in controlled environments that use fully calibrated equipment and say there is very little, if any, real difference.

I listed 5 of the top online HD reviewers.  I would like to see some of the sources you refer to for reviews.  I just curious.  I said a lot of people are going by past information.  About a year ago, the PQ would have been near even or a slight advantage to HD DVD.  HD DVD NEVER really came close to Blu-ray.  I believe, the last count was that over 60% of Blu-ray titles has lossless soundtracks.  Most of the exceptions were/are the Warner Bro's HD DVD ports to Blu-ray and Paramount.  Most HD DVD titles DON'T have lossless soundtracks.

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The gas analogy was used to say that the bandwidth specs are great but if one technology uses a scheme that reduces the amount needed to give identical or nearly identical performance then it's a non issue. That's more of a M2 vs. M4 thing and not BD vs. HD. The capacity of the discs themselves won't need to be as high if the information on the disc doesn't require it. With M4 in particular, the storage requirements don't reach anywhere near the massive capability of BD for most titles.

That's my point.  The performance is not nearly identical overall.  Of course, titles that are port overs from Warner Bros really have to be identical.  They are encoding for the lowest common denominator (lowest bandwidth available).  That is why titles encoded for Blu-ray can not be used for HD DVD, but titles encoded for HD DVD can always be used for Blu-ray.  Storage space is another problem, but bandwidth is a bit more important overall (if looked from the perspective of how many titles can this effect).

Again, Blu-ray uses AVC and VC-1 as well as MPEG-2.  That means that any codec and bit rate that HD DVD can use...so can Blu-ray (it doesn't work the other way around).  I just don't believe we should have bit starved movies sold to us at that price point.

Quote:
I realize that Amazon is only one retailer but they are a massive one. The numbers will change hourly and I myself don't take full stock in what they mean. I do believe however that they are a relatively good indiciator. Not dead-on but that wasn't the point. I can make it look as if though BD players aren't selling by quoting the sales stats.

Amazon is a massive ONLINE retailer.  There is a big difference in being massive and being massive for an online store.  It is not a good indicator for a lot of things.  Example: Even when Blu-ray was leading in month to month sales starting in Dec. 2006, Amazon showed that HD DVD was beating Blu-ray until the Nielsen Videoscan numbers came out.

Also, remember, there are top retailers that sell mainly Blu-ray players in their stores (mainly because of the huge CE manufacturer support).  The Nielsen numbers also state that starting about 12 weeks ago Blu-ray standalone players sold more than HD DVD standalone players (despite being priced higher).

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The low end BD player, which will be sellling for what, $499? Third gen HD player will be 2, 3 and $499. Two of them including 1080p/24 fps support. HD still gets the price advantage on that one. I have yet to see any BD player anywhere that is selling for less than any HD player.

Toshiba HD-XA2 1080P $599

Samsung BD-P1200 1080P  $495 (more features)

Sony BDP-S300 1080P  $469

JR.com doesn't have the HD-A20 available...going to Crutchfield next.

Toshiba HD-A20 1080P  $399

Sony BDP-S300 1080P (more features)  $499

Toshiba HD-XA2 1080P  $799

No Samsung BD-P1200.

Panasonic DMP-BD-10A 1080P (5 movies inside + 5 free mail-in that covers ALL BD players)  $599

The point is that there isn't much of a price difference NOW with similar functions.  The Sony BDP-S300 is suppose to drop another $100 for the holidays and the cheap Chinese manufactured players are also coming (for those that want cheap Chinese players).  RUMOR is another PS3 SKU is coming...a $399 PS3 with Spiderman 3 bundled.

This actually lists the new SKU for a Sony PS3 being tested by the FCC, but it doesn't say if it's a 40GB version of the PS3 or a bundle.
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 Last edited: by Ascended_Saiyan
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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Quoting Ken Cole:
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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
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To have a dual format player at the $199 price range, HD DVD and Blu-ray players would probably need to be around $100 each.  That would almost put manufacturers back into the same situation it was trying to escape from with DVD...almost no profits.

That's not really true.  The BD-UP5000 will SRP for $999 (which means maybe $799 online this year?) and is being rated as highly as the best of the current Blu-Ray only players, which are very close in SRP, and as highly as the best HD-DVD players, which are somewhat cheaper.  It's already far cheaper than buying a top end player of each type, and that's exactly what you're getting.

See one of the early reviews for the player here.

There's a large overlap in the hardware between the two formats, so there's no reason a dual format player must cost the same as the two players combined.  My old DVD player plays like nine different media types and doesn't cost as much as a player for each of the nine types.

You have a point.  The Samsung UP5000 conserves on parts.  It doesn't need 2 blue laser diodes, 2 chassis, separate audio circuits, etc.  The cost savings is obvious once looked at, but I am extremely skeptical of that pricing in 2 years.  Dual format players are only 4% of the HD market.  I don't expect them to drive prices down that quickly.  You generally need a lot of competition for that.  I guess we shall see.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantCalidain
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Registered: March 16, 2007
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Why do we constantly argue the same things over and over again???  I was talking with several of my employees tonight about movies and my DVD collection and an interesting discussion came up.  For discussion purposes I will classify these employees as average Joe Consumer(s). 

We were discussing home theater and DVDs (most of them have basic Home Theater in A Box set-ups) when someone asked me, "hey can you explain to me why there are Blue DVDs and Red DVDs, I understand they are hi-definition, but why are they different"?  I tried, in very simple layman's terms to explain the hi-def format war as it stands now.  I talked about the benefits of upgrading to hi-def movies (surprisingly many if not all of them had hi-def cable or satelite at home and actually had decent hi-def televisions) and even talked about the benefits of the PS3 and the XBOX 360 HD-DVD add-on.  The majority of these employees had the XBOX 360 right now simply because they couldn't afford the PS3. 

At the end of the discussion most asked my advice as to which one I would choose, but I instead asked them what would convince them on their own, armed with only the basic information I had provided them, to upgrade to a hi-def format, and amazingly the answer was simply, which can I afford to purchase come christmas shopping season.

All the specs in the world won't change the underlying fact that perceived value will decide this format war.  If dual-format players can get cheap enough quickly enough than it might never end, but if one or the other format suddenly dumps a cheap hi-def player upon Wal-Marts shelves come Christmas 07 or 08, this format war might actually be decided by average Joe Consumer afterall!!!
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DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantAscended_Saiyan
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^^  The real question is what can people afford?  That is different for EVERYONE.  Some people say that  most can afford $200 for a player.  Some say that point is $100 for most.  That's the problem.  Generally, I would think that if you have a $1400 HDTV, you could probably afford $400 for a player during the holiday season.  Most of the HD DVD standalone owners paid around $300 to 500 (remember the prices from the first of the year when HD DVD hit the 100,000 standalone mark).

Funai has a cheap player supposedly coming (it was displayed at IFA 2007).  Funai (under the brand names of Magnavox, Sylvania, etc) is one of Wal-Mart's top sellers.  Venturer has a $200 HD DVD player in the works, but Wal-Mart said they don't have any plans on stocking them in their stores this holiday.  Basically, the #1 and #2 retailers, in the US, won't have the Venturer $200 HD DVD player on it's shelves, but they will have BD players on their shelves (and possibly a Toshiba HD DVD player).

Just something I noticed recently that I would like to add.  Maybe some of you have noticed this as well...

Have you checked your local Sam's Club recently?  Take a look around in the movie section and TV/player section.  If your Wal-Mart hasn't carried HD titles until recently, what HD format titles do you see?  Next time you walk through a Best Buy or Tweeter/HiFi Buys, see what players are a lot easier to see and take notice of.  If consumers do a lot of shopping in B&M (brick and mortar) stores during this holiday, Blu-ray would be the most visible of the HD formats.
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DVD Profiler Unlimited Registranttwojayz
Registered: September 7, 2007
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Ascended...Well, I don't even know ehre to start with your response. The reasoning behind your argument is absolutely ludicrous. By your standrads this is what I have in my home:
5 HDTVS
11 DVD players
3 popcorn machines
1 7.1 channel hom theater system
2 5.1 home theater systems
12 CD players...

The list goes on and on. The reason to distinguish between products is because there IS a difference between products. Why have a product CATEGORY if it doesn't make any difference as to which a specific item belongs to? I didn't come up with the concept of product categorization.I have never discounted any of the capabilities of the PS3, you seem to suggest that I have.

Sony developed the PlayStation line of products as a gaming console, that's where I pull that from. It's not for convenience. If you think otherwise you're simply being delusional.

As for your software sales, when have PS3 titles been included as BD sales? I love the logic behind this. You cannot argue the merits of software sales with the same standards. Blu-Ray titles are for one purpose only. There is no quesiont about that and you've completely missed the point.

The intended purpose for the X360 add-on is to PLAY MOVIES. That is the only reason people buy that piece of equipment.

Name one BD player that allows you to play a full assortment of PS3 games...There is a huge difference between the PS3 and a BD player. Do I actually need to point that out? If you don't elaborate then you are hiding the truth about what product you actually own. Why would you do that? Chances are that if you simply said you own a BD player and someone wanted to see and you showed them, they would say something like "Oh, it's a PlayStation".

Now as for where I see reviews, ones that are done in a proffesional manner, in a controlled environment. Home theater magazines such as Sound and Vision, Home Theater, etc...Also, CEPro, which doesn't necessarily review titles but has chimed in one the topic in the past. Why would I not trust reviewers that view the movies in a controlled environment. That is the ONLY way that a comparison can be made. Everything is equal so the good and the bad of any particular disc can be evaluated properly.

If you're comparing a lossless soundtrack to one that isn't, well, um...Wow, again the logic behind that amazes me. Plenty of discs in both formates don't have a lossless audio track. Please supply 5 titles that are available on BOTH formats that use a different soundtrack. I've seen plenty of reviews from both camps that include lossless Dolby or DTS soundtracks. If one title uses the same soundtrack for both formats then the end result will be identical. The lossless track is identical to the studio MASTER. That means there is no difference. None. Again, assuming a controlled environment, calibrated equipment, and identical titles on both formats there will be no difference.

By the way, I love the way you said that "About a year ago, the PQ would have been near even or a slight advantage to HD DVD.  HD DVD NEVER really came close to Blu-ray." Which way is it?
 Last edited: by twojayz
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantStar Contributorbob9000
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Two Jayz, Please do as the rest of us are and add the ASC to your blocked forum list (under My Profiler) for your own peace of mind ...he is a complete wannabe fanboy tool and shill and should be completely ignored at all times. As you point out his arguments are usually ludicrous and biased in the extreme.  The rest of us don't even see the spammer's posts anymore and the level and intelligence of discourse on this topic has already markedly risen. Just some friendly advice. Also, once it is clear that his rambling posts of dubious 'facts' and ridiculous speculations passed as truths are all utterly ignored, he may himself just disapear from these forums. One can hope. 
 Last edited: by bob9000
DVD Profiler Unlimited Registranttwojayz
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Thanks for the advice Bob...Since I'm new I didn't realize blocking a user was even possible. Ignorance is bliss...Ignorance is bliss...
DVD Profiler Desktop and Mobile RegistrantStar ContributorTheMadMartian
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Quoting Ascended_Saiyan:
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^^  The real question is what can people afford?  That is different for EVERYONE.  Some people say that  most can afford $200 for a player.  Some say that point is $100 for most.  That's the problem.  Generally, I would think that if you have a $1400 HDTV, you could probably afford $400 for a player during the holiday season.  Most of the HD DVD standalone owners paid around $300 to 500 (remember the prices from the first of the year when HD DVD hit the 100,000 standalone mark).


You are out of touch with the average consumer.  It isn't what they can afford, it is what they are willing to spend.  The average consumer has been paying less than $100 for a DVD player for years.  They are now being told that they can get 'near high-definition picture from standard-definition DVDs' for as little as $70.  You will be hard pressed to convince them they need to spend $400 for true high-definition players.

Quote:
Just something I noticed recently that I would like to add.  Maybe some of you have noticed this as well...

Have you checked your local Sam's Club recently?  Take a look around in the movie section and TV/player section.  If your Wal-Mart hasn't carried HD titles until recently, what HD format titles do you see?  Next time you walk through a Best Buy or Tweeter/HiFi Buys, see what players are a lot easier to see and take notice of.  If consumers do a lot of shopping in B&M (brick and mortar) stores during this holiday, Blu-ray would be the most visible of the HD formats.


My local B&M stores give equal billing to both formats.  Best Buy, in particular, is great at it.  At the moment, they are pushing...in this order...upconvert DVD players, dual format players & HD DVD players.  I guess they didn't get the 'push Blu-ray' memo. 
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There is no greater power in the universe than the need for freedom.
Against this power, governments and tyrants and armies cannot stand.
The Centauri learned this lesson once.
We will teach it to them again.
Though it take a thousand years, we will be free.
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Registered: March 14, 2007
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Unicus please please please don't! I really don't want to add anyone else to my block list. 
DVD Profiler Unlimited RegistrantStar Contributorbob9000
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Quoting Unicus69:
Quote:
My local B&M stores give equal billing to both formats.  Best Buy, in particular, is great at it.  At the moment, they are pushing...in this order...upconvert DVD players, dual format players & HD DVD players.  I guess they didn't get the 'push Blu-ray' memo. 

Future Shop, Best Buy & HMV up here are also giving equal weight to HD media....Future Shop does seem to be pushing the HD DVD hardware extra hard right now....

BTW, who was that lunatic you were quoting...don't recognize the name. 
 Last edited: by bob9000
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